The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces the nominees for its awards this Thursday, so I wanted to get my predictions in. Too many pots bubbling over to bother with any kind of discussion, but do pipe up in comments if you just have to hear my logic about any of these things in particular.
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
I am officially predicting eight nominees. If there there are up to ten nominees, I would predict them to be, in this order:
*Brooklyn
*Sicario
Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alt: Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Alt: Steve Carrell, The Big Short
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saorise Ronan, Brooklyn
Alt: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Alt: Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alt: Rooney Mara, Carol
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (Adam McKay and Charles Randolph)
Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
Carol (Phyllis Nagy)
The Martian (Drew Goddard)
Steve Jobs (Aaron Sorkin)
Alt: Room (Emma Donoghue)
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies (Matt Charman and Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino)
Inside Out (Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, & Meg LeFauve)
Spotlight (Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer)
Straight Outta Compton (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, & Alan Wenkus)
Alt: Sicario (Taylor Sheridan)
Best Cinematography
Bridge of Spies (Janusz Kamiński)
Carol (Ed Lachman)
Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Sicario (Roger Deakins)
Alt: The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
Best Editing
The Big Short (Hank Corwin)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
The Martian (Pietro Scalia)
The Revenant (Stephen Mirrione)
Spotlight (Tom McArdle)
Alt: Sicario (Joe Walker)
Best Costume Design
Brooklyn (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Carol (Sandy Powell)
Cinderella (Sandy Powell)
The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)
Alt: Crimson Peak (Kate Hawley)
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies (Adam Stockhausen / Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich)
Cinderella (Dante Ferretti / Casey Banwel, Francesca Lo Schiavo)
The Danish Girl (Eve Stewart / Michael Standish)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson / Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson)
The Martian (Arthur Max / Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath)
Alt: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Rick Carter, Darren Gilford / Lee Sandales)
Best Hair and Makeup
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Black Mass
Mr. Holmes
Alt: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Score
Carol (Carter Burwell)
The Danish Girl (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
Sicario (Jóhann Jóhannson)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)
Alt: Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
Best Original Song
From Fifty Shades of Grey: "Love Me Like You Do"
From Furious 7: "See You Again"
From The Hunting Ground: "Til It Happens to You"
From I'll See You in My Dreams: "I'll See You in My Dreams"
From Youth: "Simple Song #3"
Alt: From Shaun the Sheep Movie: "Feels Like Summer"
Best Sound Mixing
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton
Alt: Bridge of Spies
Best Sound Editing
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: The Martian
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
Alt: Ex Machina
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
A War (Denmark)
Alt: Viva (Ireland)
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep
Alt: Minions
Best Documentary
Amy
Cartel Land
We Come as Friends
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Alt: Best of Enemies
Best Documentary Short
50 Feet from Syria
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Minerita
My Enemy, My Brother
The Testimony
Alt: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Best Animated Short
Bear Story (Historia de un oso)
If I Was God…
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
Alt: Prologue
Best Live-Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles wird gut)
Shok
Stutterer
Alt: Bad Hunter
13 January 2016
15 comments:
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You don't think The Assassin has a chance for Cinematography?
ReplyDeleteCinderella better get those nods for costume and production design indeed. I do think and feel Brooklyn will get a Best Picture nod and it definitely deserves that spot more than, say, The Big Short. But we'll see.
ReplyDeleteI really wish Inside Out had a chance at Best Picture, and wasn't relegated to the Best Animated Feature kiddie table.
ReplyDeleteFour Nominations for Best Animated. Isn't it either 3 or 5?
ReplyDeleteAll I hope is that the winner of Best Picture is one which has a happy ending. Every election year whether the film has a happy ending or not decides who the US president will be. If happy, the party in the white house stays there. If not the party in the white house changes. It fits all the way into the 70s. Clinton must win at all costs!
Also, the Revenant. Is it good?
The Assassin only submitted for Foreign Language Film and didn't make the finalists list, so no, it has no chance for Cinematography because it's not eligible.
ReplyDeleteI like The Revenant, but it's not for everyone (it's a long, hard watch, but it's further proof of González Iñárritu's filmmaking powers, particularly with Lubezki behind the camera).
A couple of things. Given the lack of precursor support, why are you still so confident in Carol? I'm nervous it won't even get a Best Picture nod, which would be tragic but perfectly in keeping with the Academy's tastes. Also, your predictions for the category fraud nominees interest me. Rooney in Best Actress seems incredibly unlikely to me, and Vikander in The Danish Girl feels far more solid. Vikander is exceptional in Ex Machina but it's so not an Oscar movie, so a nom in Supporting would be amazing but it feels like that's Rooney's slot. Definitely interested in your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteI really, really, really hope you're wrong about Redmayne and Lawerence, but I know, deep in my heart, you're not.
ReplyDelete1) Aside from the (predictable, dispiriting) almost-absence of non-white nominees, that's actually a pretty good slate. Fingers crossed that you're more or less right.
ReplyDelete2) The Tony Awards nominating committee meets several times per season to make decisions on disputed questions like leading vs. supporting acting nominations, whether an older show that hasn't appeared on Broadway before counts as a revival (it has gone both ways), etc. Is there any reason that there's no equivalent group for the Oscars? Just the sheer number of eligible films?
All Neon Like- The only real precedent for my Mara hunch in recent years is the Kate Winslet situation with The Reader, but I somehow don't think she possibly gets into Supporting. I think that well has been poisoned too much. Vikander in both categories is probably the smarter play, but I couldn't convince myself to be quite that bold. I do think Vikander for Supporting with Ex Machina is at least as solid as Danish Girl for Lead or Mara in either category.
ReplyDeleteZev, q2- I have no goddamn idea. The Globes have such a committee, I believe. Or maybe it's SAG. One of 'em.
Oh, and J.S. - it can be 3, 4, or 5, with 4 in the case that there are 13-15 eligible titles. There were 16 submissions, and I think every year at least one submission fails to complete all the eligibility requirements, so I think there's a good shot it falls in the sweet spot.
ReplyDeleteI guess "The Martian" (which I really liked) is the "Oscar-respectable" version of "Star Wars".
ReplyDeleteComparing my list to yours here:
ReplyDeleteNo director nod for Carol's Todd Haynes? My list snubs Adam McKay for The Big Short based on my theory that the director awards will be crowded by movies that will pick up the most nominations in acting and technical categories: the heavyweights Mad Max, Revenant, Martian, and Carol. That leaves us with Spotlight and The Big Short dueling for the 5th spot, and, going with conventional Academy choices, I would bet on Spotlight.
Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, huh? She did win the Golden Globe, but so did Amy Adams for Big Eyes; the Academy overlooked her in 2015. My guess is that the Academy will take a break from Lawrence as Joy was not well-reviewed. My list pulls for Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years, and, a longer shot, Charlize Theron in Mad Max. I assumed that Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander were campaigning for Supporting for Carol and The Danish Girl respectively, so if that's the case, the lead actress field is even more open.
My animated feature predictions are just like yours, but with When Marnie was There for a 5th slot, and for an alternative, I would like that to be The Prophet. But if Minions sneaks in there (as they did the BAFTAs), I am convinced that the Box Office decides. If The Good Dinosaur gets in there, I would just be disappointed. I didn't enjoy it as much as you did (6 out of 10, 9 out of 10 for visuals!)
Anyway, Straight Outta Compton gets a lot of love on your list. You're probably right about Sound Mixing, but I thought, with newbie actors and controversial subject matter, the Academy might just shy away from it for Best Picture (I know it got some guild noms, though).
Guess we'll see tomorrow morning! Thanks for keeping this tradition despite your busy schedule; this is fun!
hi timothy, do you tink there is a high possibility that Todd Haynes could still get nominated as Best Director despite getting snubbed by tHe DGA? And tHat Rooney MAra could beat Category Fraud and lend a nom in tHe best actress category?
ReplyDeleteGreat blog u ave ere, ceers!
Lots of conflicting emotions...Mad Max having a swipe at the Big Categories vs. the dismissal of Carol at same Big Categories. Ugh, I don't what to feel.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, you might need to get on with finding a way to watch Leo and the Bear now before it wins everything.
Atrophy: I can't see a reality in which Spotlight and Fury Road aren't the only films to take multiple nominations. Spotlight gets Best Picture and maybe supporting or editing. Fury Road gets pretty much everything else.
ReplyDelete